Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (372 feet).3–14
- 8Smith homered to left center (370 feet), Meyers scored.3–13
- 8Soler reached on infield single to third, Ward scored, Rengifo to third.3–11
- 6Smith singled to center, Diaz scored on error, Smith safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Adell, Meyers safe at third on error.2–11
- 6Diaz doubled to center, Walker scored.2–10
- 6Peña hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.2–9
- 6Paredes scored on Darrell-Hicks wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Darrell-Hicks, Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Darrell-Hicks.2–9
- 6Paredes scored on Darrell-Hicks wild pitch, Walker to second on wild pitch by Darrell-Hicks, Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Darrell-Hicks.2–9
- 5Diaz homered to left center (382 feet), Alvarez scored, Walker scored and Peña scored.2–7
- 5Walker singled to left, Paredes scored, Alvarez to second.2–3
- 5Alvarez singled to center, Altuve scored, Paredes to third.2–2
- 5Adell reached on infield single to shortstop, Paris scored, Adell out stretching at second.2–1
- 4Trout homered to left (389 feet).1–1
- 2Meyers hit sacrifice fly to right, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML LAA +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −6 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +72 Elo | HOU 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 2–426th of 30 |
| 28th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 15116th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–18 HOU in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.