Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-4
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout homered to center (403 feet).11–1
- 5Adell homered to left (382 feet), O'Hoppe scored and Paris scored.10–1
- 5Trout homered to right (320 feet), Rengifo scored.7–1
- 5Ward homered to center (413 feet), Tim Anderson scored.5–1
- 5Adell homered to center (408 feet).3–1
- 4Aranda singled to center, Caminero scored.2–1
- 2Schanuel hit a ground rule double, O'Hoppe scored.2–0
- 1Ward homered to right (352 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML LAA -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- TB: Elo 58.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +57 Elo | TB 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.816th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
| 29th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 146330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–9 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.