Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Altuve hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.3–7
- 6Peña grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walker scored, Caratini out at second.3–6
- 6Soler homered to left (399 feet).3–5
- 2Paredes homered to left (353 feet), Smith scored and Dubón scored.2–5
- 2Dubón singled to center, Meyers scored, Dubón to second, Smith to third.2–2
- 2Smith singled to right, Caratini scored, Meyers to second.2–1
- 2Schanuel homered to right (371 feet).2–0
- 1Ward homered to left (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 59%
- ML LAA +135 / HOU -160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +68 Elo | HOU 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 30 |
| 26th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–19 HOU in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.