Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Dustin HarrisBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arozarena hit by pitch, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second, Polanco to third.1–3
- 2Harris homered to center (408 feet).1–2
- 1Raleigh homered to right (351 feet), Polanco scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TEX +125 / SEA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 2.9 – 3.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +3 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +43 Elo | SEA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 7–517th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–16 SEA in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 28.