Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Angel ChivilliPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Farmer grounded out to second, Martini scored, McMahon to third.7–8
- 5Pages singled to left, Muncy scored.6–8
- 3Moniak homered to left (370 feet).6–7
- 3Toglia homered to center (418 feet), Bouchard scored, Farmer scored and Goodman scored.5–7
- 1Ohtani singled to right, Barnes scored.1–7
- 1Barnes doubled to left, Pages scored and Muncy scored.1–6
- 1Pages singled to left, Conforto scored and Edman scored, Muncy to second.1–4
- 1Freeman homered to right center (409 feet).1–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right (448 feet).1–1
- 1Farmer doubled to right, Martini scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML COL +260 / LAD -325
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -275
- COL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 5.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −25 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +128 Elo | LAD 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 9–26th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 29th of 301423 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–12 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 4–10 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–22 LAD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 28.