Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Naylor singled to right, Perdomo scored.3–2
- 10Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Swanson scored.2–2
- 10Herrera sacrificed to pitcher, Tawa scored, Herrera to first on error by second baseman Hoerner, Herrera to second.2–1
- 4Naylor singled to right, Smith scored.1–1
- 1Busch singled to left, Happ scored, Tucker to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML ARI +120 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +6 Elo | CHC 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 6.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15271st of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–11 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–8 CHC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.