Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9A. García homered to left center (394 feet), Smith scored.3–4
- 4Muncy hit a ground rule double, Conforto scored.3–2
- 4Freeman homered to right (404 feet), Betts scored.2–2
- 3Higashioka homered to left center (381 feet), Harris scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML LAD +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 43%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 46.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +3 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 9–26th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–11 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–10 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.