Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4
- Taijuan WalkerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crow-Armstrong sacrificed, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to first on fielding error by pitcher Hernández.0–4
- 4Happ doubled to left, Berti scored.0–3
- 3Hoerner singled to left, Busch scored, Swanson to second.0–2
- 2Berti doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML PHI +135 / CHC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- PHI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | −15 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +44 Elo | CHC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 8–37th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15291st of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 18–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–3 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.