Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Patrick MonteverdePitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hicks homered to right center (374 feet), Pauley scored.10–11
- 9Pauley doubled to right, Norby scored.8–11
- 9Myers homered to left (389 feet), J. Sánchez scored and Wagaman scored.7–11
- 7Schwarber singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.4–11
- 7Harper doubled to right, Stott scored, Turner to third.4–10
- 6Hicks singled to left, Mervis scored and Norby scored.4–9
- 6Conine doubled to center, Myers scored, Mervis to third.2–9
- 5Stott singled to left, Rojas scored.1–9
- 5Rojas singled to center, Bohm scored.1–8
- 4Turner doubled to left, Stott scored.1–7
- 4Stott doubled to right, Rojas scored and Bohm scored.1–6
- 4Conine grounded out to second, Stowers scored, Lopez to second.1–4
- 3Kepler doubled to right, Harper scored and Schwarber scored.0–4
- 3Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to right, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–2
- 3Turner singled to left, Rojas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML MIA +185 / PHI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 6.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −23 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +75 Elo | PHI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 8–38th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–11 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–16 PHI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.