San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yastrzemski doubled to center, Fitzgerald scored and Flores scored.11–4
- 7Fitzgerald doubled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Flores to third.9–4
- 7Flores singled to center, Ramos scored, Wade Jr. to third.8–4
- 6Lee hit sacrifice fly to left, Fitzgerald scored, Adames to second, Yastrzemski to third.7–4
- 6Adames walked, Bailey scored, Yastrzemski to second, Fitzgerald to third.6–4
- 5Chapman singled to center, Lee scored on throwing error by center fielder Rojas, Chapman to third.5–4
- 4Harper homered to right (364 feet), Rojas scored.4–4
- 1Sosa walked, Harper scored, Realmuto to second, Schwarber to third.4–2
- 1Realmuto walked, Turner scored, Schwarber to second, Harper to third.4–1
- 1Bailey singled to left, Chapman scored and Ramos scored, Flores to second.4–0
- 1Flores walked, Lee scored, Ramos to second, Chapman to third.2–0
- 1Lee singled to right, Adames scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML SF +120 / PHI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +22 Elo | PHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–3 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 4th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 12–5 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–8 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.