San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman reached on infield single to shortstop, Yastrzemski scored.10–4
- 9Yastrzemski doubled to right, Fitzgerald scored.9–4
- 7Yastrzemski homered to right center (387 feet), Fitzgerald scored.8–4
- 5Castellanos homered to left center (400 feet).6–4
- 2Adames homered to right center (378 feet).6–3
- 2Fitzgerald homered to left (369 feet), Flores scored and Bailey scored.5–3
- 2Bailey grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Wade Jr. scored on error, Flores safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Walker.2–3
- 2Flores singled to center, Ramos scored, Wade Jr. to second.1–3
- 1Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to third, Schwarber scored, Realmuto out at second, Castellanos to third.0–3
- 1Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.0–2
- 1Turner doubled to left, Stott scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML SF -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −17 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–2 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 6–7 PHI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.