Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting2-4
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-3
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Trevino grounded out to shortstop, Steer scored, Fraley to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML CIN +110 / SF -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SF: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +42 Elo | SF 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 30 |
| 7th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–10 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.