Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Yastrzemski homered to right (381 feet), Chapman scored.6–8
- 8Flores homered to left (378 feet).6–6
- 6Fitzgerald singled to right, Bailey scored.6–5
- 6Bailey tripled to right, Flores scored.6–4
- 6Flores singled to right, Yastrzemski scored.6–3
- 6Lee scored on Martinez wild pitch, Yastrzemski to third on wild pitch by Martinez.6–2
- 6Lee scored on Martinez wild pitch, Yastrzemski to third on wild pitch by Martinez.6–2
- 6Wynns walked, Lux scored, Fraley to second, Steer to third.6–1
- 4Lee tripled to right, Adames scored.5–1
- 3Lux singled to right, Espinal scored and De La Cruz scored.5–0
- 3De La Cruz doubled to right, Wynns scored and Friedl scored, Espinal to third.3–0
- 3Friedl doubled to right, Fraley scored, Wynns to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML CIN +120 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SF: Elo 51.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +8 Elo | SF 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 3.02nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–217th of 30 |
| 6th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–10 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.