San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rice homered to right (372 feet).4–8
- 6Flores singled to right, Adames scored and Lee scored, Chapman to third.4–7
- 5Domínguez singled to left, Goldschmidt scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.2–7
- 5Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored, Chisholm Jr. to second, Goldschmidt to third.2–5
- 5Goldschmidt hit a ground rule double, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.2–4
- 5Bellinger singled to center, Rice scored, Judge to third.2–3
- 2Flores homered to right center (394 feet), Ramos scored.2–2
- 1Goldschmidt hit sacrifice fly to right, Bellinger scored.0–2
- 1Bellinger tripled to left, Judge scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML SF +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +22 Elo | NYY 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–1 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–4 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–5 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.