New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pham singled to left, Suwinski scored.4–5
- 9Grisham singled to right, Domínguez scored and Peraza scored.4–4
- 9Peraza doubled to left, Volpe scored, Domínguez to third.2–4
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Frazier scored.1–4
- 4Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Valdez scored.1–3
- 3Reynolds doubled to center, Hayes scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.1–2
- 1Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Bellinger scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYY -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | 0 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +33 Elo | NYY 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 309.0 | Runs scored | 3.027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.0 | Margin | −2.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
| 9th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 146924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–3 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.