New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored.10–4
- 8Goldschmidt singled to left, Peraza scored.9–4
- 5Volpe doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Judge scored and Rice scored.8–4
- 5Grisham homered to left (366 feet), Domínguez scored and Peraza scored.5–4
- 4Rodríguez grounded out to first, Suwinski scored, Valdez to third.2–4
- 4Valdez doubled to right, Cruz scored and Hayes scored, Suwinski to third.2–3
- 4Hayes doubled to left, Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.2–1
- 3Grisham homered to right center (389 feet).2–0
- 2Wells singled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML NYY -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.9 | Runs scored | 2.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.7 | Margin | −2.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 0–126th of 29 |
| 4th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 148723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301537 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–3 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.