New York Yankees at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Oswaldo CabreraBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hayes homered to left (348 feet), Rodríguez scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.9–4
- 7Judge homered to center (403 feet), Rice scored.9–1
- 4Cabrera walked, Volpe scored, Domínguez to second, Grisham to third.7–1
- 4Domínguez hit by pitch, Wells scored, Grisham to second, Volpe to third.6–1
- 4Volpe singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Wells to second.5–1
- 3Reynolds homered to left (410 feet).4–1
- 3Cabrera singled to left, Grisham scored, Domínguez to third.4–0
- 3Domínguez singled to left, Volpe scored on error, Grisham to second, Grisham safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Canario.3–0
- 2Cabrera singled to center, Grisham scored on error and Domínguez scored on error, Cabrera safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Cruz.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -180 / PIT +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +51 Elo | NYY 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.8 | Runs scored | 2.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.5 | Margin | −1.724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 148223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301535 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–3 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.