New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9McKinstry singled to right, Báez scored and Sweeney scored, McKinstry to second.4–3
- 9Torkelson scored on Williams wild pitch, Sweeney to second on wild pitch by Williams, Báez to third on wild pitch by Williams.4–1
- 9Torkelson scored on Williams wild pitch, Sweeney to second on wild pitch by Williams, Báez to third on wild pitch by Williams.4–1
- 9Judge singled to left, Cabrera scored and Reyes scored, Rice to second.4–0
- 7Rice homered to center (419 feet), Cabrera scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 51.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +12 Elo | NYY 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.1 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.46th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301534 | Elo rating | 151711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–6 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.