Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting3-4
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Robert Jr. grounded into double play, third to first, Lee scored, Vargas to second, Amaya out at third.2–7
- 3Malloy hit sacrifice fly to right, Ibáñez scored, Sweeney to second, Rogers to third.1–7
- 3Sweeney grounded into fielder's choice to first, Keith scored, Rogers to second, Ibáñez to third.1–6
- 3Torkelson homered to left (368 feet).1–5
- 2Carpenter homered to right (373 feet), Malloy scored.1–4
- 1Ibáñez reached on infield single to third, Greene scored, Torkelson to third.1–2
- 1Greene singled to right, Malloy scored.1–1
- 1Vaughn doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Benintendi to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 68%
- ML CHW +200 / DET -240
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- DET: Elo 65.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −8 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +113 Elo | DET 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.917th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 25th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 15212nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | — | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–19 DET in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 27.