Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lee scored, Jankowski out at second.4–7
- 9Baldwin grounded out to shortstop, Sosa scored, Lee to third.3–7
- 9Lee doubled to center, Slater scored, Sosa to third.2–7
- 6Greene homered to right (417 feet).1–7
- 5Sweeney tripled to center, McKinstry scored.1–6
- 4Torkelson singled to left, Greene scored.1–5
- 4Carpenter homered to left (359 feet).1–4
- 3Dingler grounded out to third, Keith scored, McKinstry to third.1–3
- 3McKinstry singled to right, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to second, Keith to third.1–2
- 2Baldwin doubled to left, Thaiss scored.1–1
- 1Carpenter homered to right (345 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 67%
- ML CHW +195 / DET -235
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 62.5%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −17 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +89 Elo | DET 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 15412nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301413 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–18 DET in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 26.