New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bellinger scored on throwing error by second baseman Keith, Chisholm Jr. safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Keith, Goldschmidt safe at third on error.2–6
- 7Sweeney grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith scored, Carpenter out at second, Rogers to third.1–6
- 5Malloy singled to center, Keith scored and Rogers scored.1–5
- 5Judge singled to left, Grisham scored, Rice to second.1–3
- 3Ibáñez homered to left (376 feet), Rogers scored and Kreidler scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +21 Elo | NYY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.4 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.4 | Margin | +0.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 29 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–4 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.