Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Torkelson doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Greene scored, Ibáñez to third.3–4
- 9Ibáñez walked, Sweeney scored, Greene to second, McKinstry to third.3–2
- 4Amaya hit sacrifice fly to right, Thaiss scored, Vargas to third.3–1
- 2Báez singled to center, Margot scored.2–1
- 1Thaiss hit sacrifice fly to center, Benintendi scored.2–0
- 1Vaughn singled to right, Tauchman scored on error, Benintendi to second, Benintendi safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Margot.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML CHW +155 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DET: Elo 64.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +107 Elo | DET 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 26th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 30 |
| 30th of 301410 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 8–20 DET in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 28.