San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wade Jr. walked, Yastrzemski scored, Lee to second, Adames to third.9–1
- 5Bailey doubled to right, Wade Jr. scored.8–1
- 5Chapman scored on Hill wild pitch, Wade Jr. to third on wild pitch by Hill.7–1
- 5Chapman scored on Hill wild pitch, Wade Jr. to third on wild pitch by Hill.7–1
- 5Flores grounded out to pitcher, Lee scored, Wade Jr. to second, Chapman to third.6–1
- 2Wells doubled to right, Volpe scored.5–1
- 1Wade Jr. doubled to right, Ramos scored and Chapman scored.5–0
- 1Lee homered to right center (387 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Adames scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML SF +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 6.81st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.91st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
| 11th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15116th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15353rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–5 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.