Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker homered to left (394 feet), Contreras scored.0–7
- 7Pozo scored, Scott II to second on wild pitch by Strahm.0–5
- 7Pozo scored on Strahm wild pitch, Scott II to second on wild pitch by Strahm.0–5
- 6Gorman hit a ground rule double, Arenado scored.0–4
- 6Arenado doubled to left, Donovan scored.0–3
- 4Contreras homered to left (368 feet), Arenado scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -165 / STL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −19 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +50 Elo | PHI 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148426th of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–4 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.