Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arcia scored, Albies to second on wild pitch by Banks.5–7
- 8Arcia scored on Banks wild pitch, Albies to second on wild pitch by Banks.5–7
- 7Riley doubled to center, Ozuna scored.5–6
- 6Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, Kelenic scored.5–5
- 6Murphy singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Kelenic to second.5–4
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (462 feet).5–3
- 3Castellanos doubled to center, Schwarber scored.4–3
- 3Schwarber tripled to right, Turner scored and Harper scored.3–3
- 2Murphy homered to left (401 feet), Riley scored and Kelenic scored.1–3
- 1Castellanos singled to center, Bohm scored, Schwarber to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML PHI -105 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.2 – 3.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 2.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–120th of 30 |
| 25th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15311st of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–16 ATL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.