St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Victor Scott IIBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bart doubled to left, Reynolds scored.5–3
- 9McCutchen grounded out to shortstop, Canario scored.5–2
- 6Pagés grounded out to second, Arenado scored, Burleson to second.5–1
- 6Burleson singled to right, Donovan scored, Arenado to third.4–1
- 4Reynolds homered to right center (391 feet).3–1
- 3Donovan singled to left, Scott II scored.3–0
- 3Scott II tripled to center, Pagés scored and Winn scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML STL +120 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +16 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +11 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.9 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–220th of 30 |
| 27th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–15 PIT in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.