St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado reached on infield single to third, Contreras scored, Donovan to second, Donovan safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.9–13
- 9Donovan singled to center, Nootbaar scored, Contreras to second.8–13
- 9Contreras singled to center, Winn scored, Nootbaar to second.7–13
- 8Narváez doubled to center, Campbell scored.6–13
- 8Abreu grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Casas scored, Story out at second.6–12
- 7Devers singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to third.6–11
- 7Duran singled to right, Campbell scored, Rafaela to third.6–10
- 7Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Abreu scored, Narváez out at second, Campbell to third.6–9
- 7Donovan singled to left, Nootbaar scored.6–8
- 5Campbell hit sacrifice fly to right, Casas scored.5–8
- 5Abreu singled to left, Bregman scored, Casas to third.5–7
- 5Donovan homered to right center (404 feet).5–6
- 4Herrera homered to right center (387 feet), Arenado scored and Burleson scored.4–6
- 3Narváez singled to right, Campbell scored, Narváez thrown out at second.1–6
- 3Nootbaar singled to left, Scott II scored, Winn to second.1–5
- 1Abreu homered to right (392 feet).0–5
- 1Story homered to left (364 feet), Devers scored and Bregman scored.0–4
- 1Bregman doubled to left, Duran scored, Devers to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML STL +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 307.0 | Runs scored | 3.915th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.69th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 150417th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 149719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | — | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–1 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.