St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting4-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Saggese homered to left center (430 feet), Baker scored and Donovan scored.7–18
- 9Donovan doubled to left, Winn scored, Baker to third.4–18
- 7Rafaela reached on infield single to second, González scored, Narváez to third.3–18
- 7Campbell scored, Narváez to second on passed ball by Pagés, González to third on passed ball by Pagés.3–18
- 7Campbell scored, Narváez to second on passed ball by Pagés, González to third on passed ball by Pagés.3–18
- 7Saggese hit sacrifice fly to left, Nootbaar scored.3–16
- 6Bregman doubled to left, Devers scored.2–16
- 6Devers doubled to center, Duran scored and Rafaela scored.2–15
- 6Duran reached on infield single to shortstop, Narváez scored, Rafaela to second.2–13
- 6Narváez doubled to left, Story scored.2–12
- 5Devers doubled to center, Duran scored.2–11
- 4Winn reached on infield single to third, Burleson scored, Walker to third.2–10
- 3Bregman homered to center (411 feet), Duran scored and Devers scored.1–10
- 3Duran singled to right, Rafaela scored.1–7
- 2Abreu doubled to center, Bregman scored and Devers scored.1–6
- 2Bregman doubled to left, Narváez scored and Rafaela scored, Devers to third.1–4
- 2Rafaela singled to right, González scored, Narváez to third.1–2
- 1Abreu singled to right, Devers scored, Bregman to second.1–1
- 1Donovan doubled to left, Contreras scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML STL +110 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.9 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 27th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 150414th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–1 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–3 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.