St. Louis Cardinals at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean NewcombPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Abreu singled to left, Bregman scored, Casas to second.4–5
- 9Devers walked, Abreu scored, Wong to second, González to third.4–4
- 9González doubled to left, Story scored, Abreu to third.4–3
- 8Pagés doubled to center, Winn scored and Scott II scored.4–2
- 6Pagés hit a ground rule double, Saggese scored, Winn to third.2–2
- 5Devers homered to left center (393 feet).1–2
- 4Hamilton singled to right, Refsnyder scored.1–1
- 4Winn singled to right, Walker scored, Winn to second, Scott II to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML STL +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 307.3 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 27th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–2 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.