Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Yohel PozoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Burleson walked, Pozo scored, Arenado to second, Nootbaar to third.0–2
- 5Pozo doubled to left, Saggese scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML PHI -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 48.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 147629th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301531 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–3 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.