St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 13Bart singled to left, Canario scored, McCutchen to second, Reynolds to third.1–2
- 12Pham singled to left, Hayes scored.1–1
- 12Walker singled to right, Contreras scored, Arenado to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- STL: Elo 52.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −17 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +17 Elo | STL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.5 | Runs scored | 3.620th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–323rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–1 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–15 PIT in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.