Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Ozuna homered to left center (413 feet), Riley scored.2–4
- 11Riley doubled to center, Albies scored.2–2
- 11Rojas walked, Castellanos scored, Stott to second, Realmuto to third.2–1
- 3Schwarber homered to center (429 feet).1–1
- 1Olson grounded out to first, Riley scored, Ozuna to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML PHI +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15321st of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–3 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–17 ATL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 32.