Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner homered to left center (402 feet).4–3
- 7Riley homered to left (417 feet).3–3
- 7Harper homered to center (400 feet), Turner scored.3–2
- 6Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelenic scored.1–2
- 6Arcia singled to left, Murphy scored, Kelenic to third.1–1
- 6Stott reached on infield single to second, Kepler scored, Realmuto to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML PHI +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −7 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15311st of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–17 ATL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.