San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (361 feet).5–4
- 7Schmitt scored, Koss safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Goldschmidt.5–3
- 6Lee homered to right center (363 feet), Koss scored and Adames scored.4–3
- 4Lee homered to right center (406 feet).1–3
- 2Rice singled to left, Escarra scored.0–3
- 2Escarra doubled to right, Domínguez scored.0–2
- 1Goldschmidt singled to right, Judge scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML SF +110 / NYY -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +12 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–2 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15117th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15333rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–6 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.