San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee singled to right, Ramos scored, Adames to third.4–6
- 7Harper homered to right (354 feet), Stott scored.3–6
- 6Bohm singled to left, Castellanos scored, Realmuto to third.3–4
- 6Realmuto singled to left, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to second.3–3
- 6Flores grounded out to shortstop, Lee scored, Chapman to third.3–2
- 4Schmitt singled to left, Chapman scored and Flores scored.2–2
- 2Marsh hit sacrifice fly to right, Kepler scored.0–2
- 2Realmuto homered to left center (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML SF +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +1 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +44 Elo | PHI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–5 | 9–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–7 PHI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.