San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fitzgerald homered to left center (381 feet).4–6
- 8Sosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored, Schwarber to third.3–6
- 6Chapman homered to left (372 feet), Ramos scored.3–5
- 1Bohm tripled to center, Castellanos scored.1–5
- 1Schwarber scored on Hicks wild pitch, Castellanos to second on wild pitch by Hicks.1–4
- 1Schwarber scored on Hicks wild pitch, Castellanos to second on wild pitch by Hicks.1–4
- 1Castellanos singled to center, Harper scored, Schwarber to third.1–3
- 1Schwarber singled to right, Stott scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.1–2
- 1Chapman singled to right, Ramos scored, Chapman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML SF +165 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- SF +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +8 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–3 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 30 |
| 4th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15238th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–6 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–5 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–8 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.