Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony VenezianoPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wagaman homered to left center (427 feet), Stowers scored.2–7
- 5Schwarber homered to right center (426 feet).0–7
- 2Rojas scored on Alcantara wild pitch.0–6
- 2Rojas scored on Alcantara wild pitch.0–6
- 2Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored, Rojas to third.0–5
- 2Rojas singled to right, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second.0–4
- 2Bohm singled to center, Kepler scored, Realmuto to third.0–3
- 1Harper homered to right (418 feet), Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 67%
- ML MIA +195 / PHI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +5 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +75 Elo | PHI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–15 PHI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.