Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Connor GillispiePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Sanoja singled to center, Myers scored.7–5
- 10Stowers hit sacrifice fly to right, Norby scored.6–5
- 8Stevenson reached on infield single to second, Castellanos scored, Kepler to third.5–5
- 8Sanoja homered to left (367 feet), Norby scored and Lopez scored.5–4
- 7Sanoja scored, Mervis to third, Edwards safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Stott.2–4
- 4Marchán singled to right, Bohm scored, Rojas to second.1–4
- 2Sanoja hit sacrifice fly to center, Myers scored.1–3
- 1Castellanos singled to right, Harper scored.0–3
- 1Harper doubled to center, Stott scored and Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 73%
- ML MIA +250 / PHI -310
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.6%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -265
- MIA +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +2 | MIA: Connor Gillispie: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +105 Elo | PHI 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–5 | Road vs home | 9–37th of 30 |
| 10th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–11 | 12–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 13–17 PHI in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.