Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott homered to right center (399 feet), Realmuto scored and Bohm scored.4–5
- 9Realmuto singled to center, Kepler scored.1–5
- 7Lindor homered to center (412 feet), Acuña scored and Taylor scored.0–5
- 2Winker homered to center (405 feet).0–2
- 1Lindor homered to right (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML PHI +110 / NYM -130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +38 Elo | NYM 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148329th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15344th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 12–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 7–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–15 NYM in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ NYM 4PlayoffsPicked NYM 52%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 2 @ NYM 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Miss
- Oct 6NYM 6 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 57%Hit
- Oct 5NYM 6 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 60%Miss
- Sep 22PHI 1 @ NYM 2Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Sep 21PHI 3 @ NYM 6Picked NYM 52%Hit
- Sep 20PHI 12 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 50%Miss
- Sep 19PHI 6 @ NYM 10Picked NYM 57%Hit