St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting2-4
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alonso homered to left (443 feet).0–3
- 3Alonso doubled to center, Soto scored.0–2
- 3Soto singled to center, Acuña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 65%
- ML STL +175 / NYM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -186
- STL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +14 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +76 Elo | NYM 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 7–13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 148229th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 6–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–10 NYM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.