Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-3
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to center (419 feet).2–0
- 6Meyers singled to right, Peña scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL 0 Elo | STL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.123rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.