Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña homered to left center (407 feet), Meyers scored and Dezenzo scored.3–8
- 7Arenado homered to left (379 feet).0–8
- 5Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored.0–7
- 5Donovan doubled to right, Arenado scored on error, Donovan safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Smith.0–6
- 5Arenado doubled to left, Contreras scored on error, Arenado safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Peña.0–5
- 4Nootbaar singled to center, Pagés scored.0–4
- 4Pagés doubled to left, Donovan scored and Walker scored.0–3
- 3Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nootbaar scored, Baker out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +9 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +17 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.