St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Donovan reached on infield single to shortstop, Scott II scored.1–4
- 2Lindor singled to right, Baty scored and Taylor scored, Lindor thrown out at second.0–4
- 2Baty singled to left, Marte scored.0–2
- 2Vientos homered to right (338 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML STL +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- STL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −13 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +19 Elo | NYM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 2.92nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–7 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 5–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–8 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.