New York Mets at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-4
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty scored on error, Taylor safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Wilson.8–0
- 9Baty tripled to center, Torrens scored.7–0
- 9Torrens hit a ground rule double, Vientos scored.6–0
- 9Vientos doubled to center, Nimmo scored.5–0
- 8Taylor scored on a balk.4–0
- 8Taylor scored on a balk.4–0
- 7Vientos walked, Lindor scored, Nimmo to second, J. Soto to third.3–0
- 7Lindor doubled to center, Acuña scored.2–0
- 6Torrens singled to right, Alonso scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 3.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +74 Elo | NYM 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–630th of 30 |
| 28th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15099th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–3 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
