New York Mets at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday hit sacrifice fly to left, Soderstrom scored.7–6
- 9Langeliers doubled to left, Butler scored, Soderstrom to third.7–5
- 8Alonso homered to left (360 feet).7–4
- 6Andujar homered to left (341 feet), Wilson scored.6–4
- 6Wilson singled to right, Langeliers scored, Wilson to second.6–2
- 6Marte doubled to center, Soto scored and Lindor scored.6–1
- 6Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Siri scored.4–1
- 5Alonso doubled to center, Soto scored.3–1
- 2Andujar singled to right, Langeliers scored.2–1
- 2Torrens doubled to left, Acuña scored.2–0
- 2Nimmo homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–530th of 30 |
| 25th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 6th of 301528 | Elo rating | 145427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–2 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.
