New York Mets at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pereda doubled to left, Muncy scored.1–3
- 6Nimmo homered to right (379 feet).1–2
- 4Bleday grounded out to second, Soderstrom scored, Andujar to second, Langeliers to third.0–2
- 4Soderstrom singled to center, Wilson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML NYM -135 / ATH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +68 Elo | NYM 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 30 |
| 27th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 145328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–2 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.
