New York Mets at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lee homered to right center (386 feet).3–6
- 7Winker hit sacrifice fly to right, Vientos scored.3–5
- 6Julien singled to left, Jeffers scored.2–5
- 5France grounded into fielder's choice to second, Buxton scored.2–4
- 4Bader reached on infield single to third, Larnach scored.2–3
- 4Soto homered to right (351 feet).2–2
- 3Correa singled to center, Buxton scored, France thrown out at third.1–2
- 3Bader scored on error, France safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Lindor, Buxton to second.1–1
- 1Alonso homered to left center (416 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML NYM -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +2 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +32 Elo | NYM 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 30 |
| 29th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–12 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.