Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wallner doubled to left, Castro scored.1–5
- 6France reached on infield single to second, Buxton scored, Castro to second.1–4
- 6Julien homered to left (361 feet).1–3
- 4Torkelson homered to left (396 feet).1–2
- 2Lee singled to center, France scored.0–2
- 1Buxton homered to left (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML DET -105 / MIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +17 Elo | DET 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.325th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148725th of 30 |
| 10th of 301520 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–4 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 16–12 MIN in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.