Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting1-4
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torkelson homered to left center (421 feet), Carpenter scored.4–0
- 4Malloy hit sacrifice fly to right, Torkelson scored, Greene to third.2–0
- 1Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to right, McKinstry scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 59%
- ML DET +135 / MIN -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- DET +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −13 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148525th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–4 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 15–12 MIN in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.