Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bader singled to left, France scored, Castro to second.2–4
- 6Isbel homered to right (401 feet).1–4
- 2Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Garcia scored, Isbel out at second.1–3
- 2Isbel reached on infield single to third, Melendez scored, Garcia to second.1–2
- 2Castro doubled to center, France scored.1–1
- 1Pasquantino doubled to left, India scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML MIN -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- KC: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +28 Elo | KC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.3 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 29 |
| 28th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 16–10 KC in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.